冰困是影响冬季船舶航行安全的重要因素。为避免冰困突发应急处置中，不合理操作引发的严重安全问题，本文采用决策实验分析法全面分析我国辽东湾2012-2022年冰困数据，确定各要素间的因果关系和系统中的地位，得出冰困的本质层因素，并根据本质层因素与过渡层的关系，提出船舶冰困预防的技术建议和管理建议，以期为相关部门提供技术支持和决策依据。
The sea ice trap is an important factor affecting the safety of navigation and other productive activities in this water. The study used DEMATEL to inverse the sea ice trap in the northern waters of Liaodong Bay during the winter of 2012–2022, and analysed the sea ice trap and its variation characteristics, including channels and anchorages. The results show that: tides are most severe during the bloom period, while attention should be paid to the increase of tides. It can be seen that the ice trap characteristics of the northern waters of Liaodong Bay and navigable waters can provide an important decision basis for the traffic organization and risk prevention in the waters.
2024,46(17): 172-175 收稿日期：2023-9-14
DOI：10.3404/j.issn.1672-7649.2024.17.031
分类号：U676.1
作者简介：王璐璐(1982-),女,硕士,副教授,研究方向为船舶与海洋工程
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